2010 Oscar Predictions

I've made my predictions on the Oscars for the past several years. Despite my lack of success, it's still kind of fun. This year was a little tougher, as I didn't have time to see all the movies nominated with the expansion to 10 movies for best picture. That and theistrategic marketing of not releasing the movies on DVD until after the Oscars made it hard to see them all.

For the sake of not showing how much I guess on some of these picks, and avoid the boredom for the 'who cares' factor, I'll just make predictions on the bigger awards. I mean seriously, outside of the people who made the movies, does anyone really care what wins for best foreign language film of the year?

As far as the acting awards, I think most of them are probably locked up already based on pre-Oscar hype and results from the previous awards that have been handed out. I haven't seen any of the movies for my picks to win the acting awards, but based on what I've read I don't think there will be much suspense. In the supporting roles, Christopher Waltz in Inglorious Bastards and Mo'Nique in Precious are both locked up winners in my opinion. They've swept the pre-Oscar awards and should both take home the top prize this weekend.

For best acting awards, I have actually only seen two movies that have the nominees, and I don't think either of the two will win. For best actress, Meryl Streep got her 200th nomination (or so it seems), but Sandra Bullock has gotten all the pre-Oscar hype her role in The Blind Side that has shocked a lot of people, in a good way, and is my pick to bring home the Oscar.

In the best actor race, Jeremy Renner's performance in The Hurt Locker is the only movie I've seen, and I have to admit he was outstanding in that role. However, Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart has gotten on the hype and won virtually all the pre-Oscar awards (not counting BAFTA, who gave it to Colin Firth to keep the award on that side of the Atlantic). It's hard to imagine "The Dude" from The Big Lebowski winning an Oscar, but Bridges is my pick to take home the award.

For best picture and best director, it's been an interesting race for the Oscars with the Avatar versus Hurt Locker talk. The pre-Oscar campaign e-mails sent by one of the producers from The Hurt Locker gave a little controversy to things as that's a huge no-no in the Oscar world. Call it naive, call it stupid - either way it wasn't good news for a movie that was on a huge roll with nothing but good press until that incident.

In the debate between the two, let me start by saying that Avatar is an amazing movie to watch, especially in 3D. It was a great movie and I loved it. That being said, I don't see it being a huge winner this year. I think it will walk away with its fair share of Oscars, most notably for best visual effects and editing, and I could see it taking the Oscar for best music, original score. But other than the biggest two nominations for best picture and best director, Avatar has no acting nominations for obvious reasons (which is another debate in itself), and no nominations for writing. That could be an indicator of the Academy's continues history of not awarding the big awards to the blockbuster sci-fi fantasy type movies (see Star Wars and E.T.).

Let's start with the best director debate. I think the Academy will hand out the award to a female director for the first time in history and give it to Kathryn Bigelow. The Hurt Locker was an amazing movie. When looking back on Oscar history, there have been numerous directors who have taken home the statue for directing war based movies: All Quiet on the Western Front, William Wyler for both Mrs. Miniver and The Best Years of Our Lives, David Lean for Bridge Over the River Kwai, Franklin Schaffner for Patton, Oliver Stone for Platoon, and Steven Spielberg for Saving Private Ryan. This is the first movie based on the Iraqi war that has received this type of recognition and it falls in line with the quality of some of the before mentioned movies. The fact that Bigelow is just the fourth female director to be nominated for this award and could be the first to win is irrelevant. The fact that The Hurt Locker was a tremendous movie with a great story line, made you feel a part of the movie and tied in with the characters, and kept you in suspense the entire time is why Bigelow should receive this award for her amazing work.

The best picture race could be interesting, and this could be the first year since 2005 where Best Picture and Best Director awards are split. If that happens, I could see Avatar getting Best Picture and Bigelow getting Best Director. Obviously Avatar was the huge blockbuster and was a tremendous movie. The Hurt Locker was suspenseful and an amazing movie as well. I could see either movie winning the award and either would be well deserving. However, my pick is for The Hurt Locker. I tend to favor the same history the Academy has shown and that is favoring movies that have great story lines, great directing and great acting - the whole pie. Avatar was a great movie and James Cameron's vision to make such a movie was amazing. But looking back at the history of the awards, not many sci-fi fantasy films have won. In 2003, Peter Jackson's The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King is really the only movie of that genre to win the award, surprisingly beating out Mystic River that year. The Hurt Locker on the other hand, has more of the whole pie and more of an all around great movie in all areas - story, directing and acting, more of the whole package that the Academy tends to favor. That and the fact that despite liking Avatar in entertainment value, I just thought The Hurt Locker was an overall better movie and would give it my pick for the Oscar.

Now if I only had a vote, my opinions might actually matter.


My full list of predictions:
Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Lead Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Best Lead Actress: Sandra Bullock, Blind Side
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Waltz, Inglorious Bastards
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, Precious
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Best Adapted Screenplay: Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
Best Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Art Direction: Avatar
Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria
Best Makeup: The Young Victoria
Best Music, Original Score: Avatar
Best Music, Original Song: Almost There - The Princess and the Frog
Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Animated Feature Film: Up
Best Foreign Language Film: Das weisse Band
Best Documentary Feature: Food, Inc.
Best Documentary, Short Subject: The Last Truck
Best Short Film, Animated: Wallace and Gromit; A Matter of Loaf and Death
Best Short Film, Live Action: The Door