Sunday, February 24, 2008

Oscar Recap

My overall score on predictions for Oscar night: I got 8 out of 24 correct. Not great by any means, at just 33%, but I set low expectations, saying I would be happy with 25%, so in essence I overachieved. That correct percentage did include great predictions in the categories of Best Foreign Film and Best Animated Short Film (who knew? total guesses).

In the big categories of Best Picture, Director, Lead Actor/Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress, I did somewhat better, getting 3 out of 6 right.

BEST PICTURE: After winning Oscars for Best Screenplay and Best Director, it would have been a shocker to see another movie win Best Picture. While No Country for Old Men was a good movie, I thought it was the third best movie of the five nominated, especially with the ending it had. I thought There Will Be Blood would win, and liked Atonement the best, but No Country was still a deserving winner.

BEST DIRECTOR: The Coen Brothers were the stars of the night, especially with the short acceptance speeches. No Country for Old Men was a good movie, and the Coen’s deserved the award in a category that I thought could have been a toss up. Once they won the Oscar for Best Screenplay earlier in the evening, I had a feeling they would also win this award as well.

Best Actor in a Leading Role: It was a clear cut winner here, as Daniel Day-Lewis won a very well-deserving Oscar. He also had a great one-liner about being knighted by Helen Mirren, who presented the award after winning for her portrayal of Queen Elizabeth last year. The greatness of his performance was evident in all of the nominations that were given to There Will Be Blood, despite winning just two awards for this category and cinematography.

Best Actress in a Leading Role: This was kind of a surprise, but a well deserved award for Marion Cotillard. She was great in La Vie en Rose, and one I should have picked but I didn’t think a foreign language film would get the recognition it deserved and Cotillard for her outstanding performance. I did start to worry that Cotillard was going to hyperventilate once she got on stage during her acceptance speech.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role: No real shocker here, as Javier Bardem was a clear cut winner with his performance. I wish I would have remembered more Spanish when I was in Barcelona so I could have tried to figure out what he was saying to his mom during his acceptance speech. I seriously doubt that he was giving her directions to the library.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Having only seen a couple of the movies in this category, it was hard to predict but Tilda Swinton was very good in her role. I still thought Saoirse Ronan was a little better, but that may have been swayed a bit by the fact that I liked the movie Atonement much better than Michael Clayton.

Other Notes:

My prediction for Best Original Song was based on the popularity of the movie Enchanted, and I figured with three of the five nominations coming from that movie it would surely have one of the win. So, in trying to use logic, I went against my true thoughts and it backfired. I actually saw the movie Once, which featured the song “Falling Slowly,” and I really liked that movie for some reason, and the song is great (I even have it on my iPod). I actually cheered when that song was named as the winner and then couldn’t help but laugh at Glen Hansard’s thick Irish accent during his acceptance speech. I did get irritated when they cut off Marketa Irglova before she could say any of her thanks, and was glad they gave her a chance to come back out after the commercial break.

It was nice to see Diablo Cody win for Best Original Screenplay for the movie Juno. It really was a good movie and was hysterical yet serious at the same time. Her choice of dress attire was a little questionable however, but nice to see the Academy honor an independent film with such a big award.

How about The Bourne Ultimatum? A huge fan of the Bourne movies, it was nice to see that movie earn three Oscars, winning for each of the three nominations that it had. Ultimatum actually won the second most Oscars on the evening behind only No Country for Old Men.

Atonement and Michael Clayton both had the biggest disappointments on the night. Both were nominated for seven Oscars each, and they each won just a single award (Michael Clayton for Best Supporting Actress and Atonement for Original Score). There Will Be Blood wasn't much better, starting the night with eight nominations and winning twice (Best Cinematography and Best Lead Actor).

Also, call me crazy but the show would be so much better if they cut out some of the intro joke stuff. Not that some of it wasn't funny, but if I wanted to see a guy stand on stage and tell political jokes, I would watch Leno or Letterman. Funny one liners poking fun at the movie industry and celebrities throughout the evening's show are fine, but you could kill a half hour of the telecast by simply eliminating the needless stunts that try to get a laugh or two.

I would much rather see them cut that junk out and let some of the award winners have acceptance speeches that last longer than 15 seconds. Seemed like all of the winners, especially at the end of the ceremony when you had the big award winners up there, had to rush through their speeches and didn't have time to provide us with those memorable Oscar winning moments. Roberto Benigni climbing on the chairs, Halle Berry's emotional acceptance speech, Cuba Gooding Jr. proclaiming his love for everyone, Kevin Spacey's emotional thank you to Jack Lemmon, Jack Palance doing push ups - those are the moments that make Oscar night special and memorable, but those moments are impossible to come by when they get 10 seconds to say thanks and then they're rushed off the stage (see Marketa Irglova in the Best Song category).

2008 Oscar Predictions

As an avid movie watcher, I love Oscar night. I developed an appreciation for the Academy Awards and its history after spending nearly a year watching every movie that has ever won an Oscar for Best Picture. That quest gave me a chance to see some of the all-time classic movies as well as some of the great actors, actresses and directors in movie history.

With that being said, Oscar night has become a bigger deal to me to see which movies, performers and directors will join the elite and forever be etched in history in the movie industry. This year, I made it a point to see all the pictures that were nominated for some of the major awards – including all five movies nominated for best picture. After seeing all of those movies, here are my predictions for the Oscars which will be aired later this evening (7 pm CT).

Look for my Oscar thoughts and recap tomorrow, as well as a scoring of my predictions. If I get 1/4th of the 24 categories correct I'd be surprised. I'd be even more surprised if I get more than one of the top five awards correct - haha.


BEST PICTURE

This should be a tight race for the ultimate Oscar of the evening. While Juno was a great movie and hilariously entertaining, I think it’s nomination was another nod from the Academy to the independent films out there, similar to Little Miss Sunshine last year. There Will be Blood and No Country were both great movies with some great performances, and either movie could easily take home the top prize. The same is true for Michael Clayton, a serious movie about corporate corruption. I could easily see a surprise winner here with Atonement, which was my favorite movie of the five. However, it would be very rare for a movie to win Best Picture without having any nominations for Best Director or either of the Best Lead performer’s categories. That being said, I could see any of the four (minus Juno) winning this award. My personal choice would be for Atonement, but my prediction is that the winner will go to There Will Be Blood.

BEST DIRECTOR

I did not see Le Scaphandre et le Papillion, and honestly have no idea what that movie is even about or who director Julian Schnabel is, so I can’t even make a comment on this movie. I did see the other four movies, and all were good. In the past, this category was a sign of what would win Best Picture, but that has changed recently. Over the last nine years, four winners for Best Director have not gone on to win Best Picture, and I think this year could be the fifth in ten years. I don’t see Jason Reitman winning for Juno, as the Academy has not been known to favor comedies for more than just a nomination. After that, it could be a toss up between Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood), Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men) and Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton). I think Anderson will be third in this group, despite a great movie and a great performance from Daniel Day-Lewis, and Gilroy did a great job with Michael Clayton, but I think the Coen’s will win this Oscar by a nose. Having previously won an Oscar for Best Screenplay with Fargo, I think the Coen’s did a great job in No Country for Old Men and see them getting the nod in this category, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Gilroy (second place) or Anderson win.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

There was one movie in this category that I have not seen yet, and that is Johnny Depp’s performance in Sweeney Todd. I don’t see Depp winning just yet, although he should break through for a win in the near future. Besides, I don’t think it matters as Daniel Day-Lewis should be a sure winner here. Viggo Mortenson was really good in Eastern Promises, but it was too small of a movie to garner too much attention. Tommy Lee Jones was just good in the movie In the Valley of Elah, and George Clooney had one of his better and more serious roles in Michael Clayton, and could be a surprise winner here. Day-Lewis should be the winner though, as he was simply outstanding for his portrayal of an oil tycoon in There Will be Blood and carried the movie in what should be his second Oscar.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

There was one movie that I did not get a chance to see in this category, and that is Laura Linney’s performance in The Savages. However, as a surprise nomination in this category and despite her history of being a great supporting actress, I don’t see her winning. I have seen the other four movies however. Cate Blanchett played Queen Elizabeth in Elizabeth: The Golden Age, and the Academy loves real-life portrayls on awards night. Newcomer Ellen Page was surprisingly great in Juno, but not too many comedy movies are successful on Oscar night. I see this category coming down to a dual between Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose, and Julie Christie in Away from Her. Cotillard won the Golden Globe and would be well deserving of the Oscar, but I think the downside for her is that only once in Oscar history has a Best Lead Actress award gone to a performance in a foreign language. Christie portrayed an Alzheimer’s patient and brought to the screen an awareness of an important social issue, something the Academy has shown an appreciation towards in the past, so I see Christie winning this category.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

I think this is category is a lock, despite having seen just two of the five performances. Javier Bardem should walk away with this Oscar for his outstanding performance in No Country for Old Men. Tom Wilkinson was really good in Michael Clayton, previous Oscar winner Phillip Seymour Hoffman has received acclaim for his role in Charlie Wilson’s war, Hal Holbrook would be the sentimental favorite, and Casey Affleck is the dark horse nominee. None of that matters though, as Bardem was great in his mysteriously frightening role.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

I’ve only seen two of the five nominated performances, so it’s hard for me to make a solid prediction other than just by reviews I’ve read. Tilda Swinton had a good performance in Michael Clayton but I thought Saoirse Ronan was really, really good in Atonement, and the Academy does have a tendency to lean towards the younger female performers, especially in this category. I have not seen any of the other performances, but going on the Golden Globe results, and the fact that the few times a performer has earned Best Lead and Supporting acting nominations in the same year, they usually win one of them. Therefore, I’m going to make a prediction that Cate Blanchett will win her second Oscar, with Saoirse Ronan coming in second.

OTHER PREDICTIONS (most just guesses):

Best Writing Directly for Screen: Michael Clayton

Best Writing Based on Previously Published Material: Atonement

Best Achievement in Cinematography: Atonement

Best Achievement in Editing: There Will Be Blood

Best Achievement in Art Direction: Atonement

Best Achievement in Costume Design: Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Best Achievement in Makeup: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Picture, Original Score: Atonement

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Picture, Original Song: "That's How You Know", Enchanted

Best Achievement in Sound: No Country for Old Men

Best Achievement in Sound Editing: Transformers

Best Achievement in Visual Effects: Transformers

Best Animated Film: Ratatouille

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year: Falscher, Die

Best Documentary, Feature: No End in Sight

Best Documentary, Short Subject: Sari's Mother

Best Short Film, Animated: Peter and the Wolf

Best Short Film, Live Action: Tanghi argentini