2008 Oscar Predictions

As an avid movie watcher, I love Oscar night. I developed an appreciation for the Academy Awards and its history after spending nearly a year watching every movie that has ever won an Oscar for Best Picture. That quest gave me a chance to see some of the all-time classic movies as well as some of the great actors, actresses and directors in movie history.

With that being said, Oscar night has become a bigger deal to me to see which movies, performers and directors will join the elite and forever be etched in history in the movie industry. This year, I made it a point to see all the pictures that were nominated for some of the major awards – including all five movies nominated for best picture. After seeing all of those movies, here are my predictions for the Oscars which will be aired later this evening (7 pm CT).

Look for my Oscar thoughts and recap tomorrow, as well as a scoring of my predictions. If I get 1/4th of the 24 categories correct I'd be surprised. I'd be even more surprised if I get more than one of the top five awards correct - haha.

BEST PICTURE

This should be a tight race for the ultimate Oscar of the evening. While Juno was a great movie and hilariously entertaining, I think it’s nomination was another nod from the Academy to the independent films out there, similar to Little Miss Sunshine last year. There Will be Blood and No Country were both great movies with some great performances, and either movie could easily take home the top prize. The same is true for Michael Clayton, a serious movie about corporate corruption. I could easily see a surprise winner here with Atonement, which was my favorite movie of the five. However, it would be very rare for a movie to win Best Picture without having any nominations for Best Director or either of the Best Lead performer’s categories. That being said, I could see any of the four (minus Juno) winning this award. My personal choice would be for Atonement, but my prediction is that the winner will go to There Will Be Blood.

BEST DIRECTOR

I did not see Le Scaphandre et le Papillion, and honestly have no idea what that movie is even about or who director Julian Schnabel is, so I can’t even make a comment on this movie. I did see the other four movies, and all were good. In the past, this category was a sign of what would win Best Picture, but that has changed recently. Over the last nine years, four winners for Best Director have not gone on to win Best Picture, and I think this year could be the fifth in ten years. I don’t see Jason Reitman winning for Juno, as the Academy has not been known to favor comedies for more than just a nomination. After that, it could be a toss up between Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood), Ethan and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men) and Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton). I think Anderson will be third in this group, despite a great movie and a great performance from Daniel Day-Lewis, and Gilroy did a great job with Michael Clayton, but I think the Coen’s will win this Oscar by a nose. Having previously won an Oscar for Best Screenplay with Fargo, I think the Coen’s did a great job in No Country for Old Men and see them getting the nod in this category, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Gilroy (second place) or Anderson win.

Best Actor in a Leading Role

There was one movie in this category that I have not seen yet, and that is Johnny Depp’s performance in Sweeney Todd. I don’t see Depp winning just yet, although he should break through for a win in the near future. Besides, I don’t think it matters as Daniel Day-Lewis should be a sure winner here. Viggo Mortenson was really good in Eastern Promises, but it was too small of a movie to garner too much attention. Tommy Lee Jones was just good in the movie In the Valley of Elah, and George Clooney had one of his better and more serious roles in Michael Clayton, and could be a surprise winner here. Day-Lewis should be the winner though, as he was simply outstanding for his portrayal of an oil tycoon in There Will be Blood and carried the movie in what should be his second Oscar.

Best Actress in a Leading Role

There was one movie that I did not get a chance to see in this category, and that is Laura Linney’s performance in The Savages. However, as a surprise nomination in this category and despite her history of being a great supporting actress, I don’t see her winning. I have seen the other four movies however. Cate Blanchett played Queen Elizabeth in Elizabeth: The Golden Age, and the Academy loves real-life portrayls on awards night. Newcomer Ellen Page was surprisingly great in Juno, but not too many comedy movies are successful on Oscar night. I see this category coming down to a dual between Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose, and Julie Christie in Away from Her. Cotillard won the Golden Globe and would be well deserving of the Oscar, but I think the downside for her is that only once in Oscar history has a Best Lead Actress award gone to a performance in a foreign language. Christie portrayed an Alzheimer’s patient and brought to the screen an awareness of an important social issue, something the Academy has shown an appreciation towards in the past, so I see Christie winning this category.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

I think this is category is a lock, despite having seen just two of the five performances. Javier Bardem should walk away with this Oscar for his outstanding performance in No Country for Old Men. Tom Wilkinson was really good in Michael Clayton, previous Oscar winner Phillip Seymour Hoffman has received acclaim for his role in Charlie Wilson’s war, Hal Holbrook would be the sentimental favorite, and Casey Affleck is the dark horse nominee. None of that matters though, as Bardem was great in his mysteriously frightening role.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

I’ve only seen two of the five nominated performances, so it’s hard for me to make a solid prediction other than just by reviews I’ve read. Tilda Swinton had a good performance in Michael Clayton but I thought Saoirse Ronan was really, really good in Atonement, and the Academy does have a tendency to lean towards the younger female performers, especially in this category. I have not seen any of the other performances, but going on the Golden Globe results, and the fact that the few times a performer has earned Best Lead and Supporting acting nominations in the same year, they usually win one of them. Therefore, I’m going to make a prediction that Cate Blanchett will win her second Oscar, with Saoirse Ronan coming in second.

OTHER PREDICTIONS (most just guesses):

Best Writing Directly for Screen: Michael Clayton

Best Writing Based on Previously Published Material: Atonement

Best Achievement in Cinematography: Atonement

Best Achievement in Editing: There Will Be Blood

Best Achievement in Art Direction: Atonement

Best Achievement in Costume Design: Elizabeth: The Golden Age

Best Achievement in Makeup: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Picture, Original Score: Atonement

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Picture, Original Song: "That's How You Know", Enchanted

Best Achievement in Sound: No Country for Old Men

Best Achievement in Sound Editing: Transformers

Best Achievement in Visual Effects: Transformers

Best Animated Film: Ratatouille

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year: Falscher, Die

Best Documentary, Feature: No End in Sight

Best Documentary, Short Subject: Sari's Mother

Best Short Film, Animated: Peter and the Wolf

Best Short Film, Live Action: Tanghi argentini